Stock Views on Tata Chemicals, HPCL, GODREJ Consumer Products

GOLDMAN SACHS on TATA CHEMICALS

GOLDMAN Sachs downgrades Tata Chemicals to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ with a 12-month P/BV-based target price of Rs 140, implying downside potential of 12% from here. With a weakening global economy and consequent correction in agri commodity prices, Goldman Sachs now expects downside risk to Tata Chemicals earnings from its soda ash and fertiliser businesses. It forecasts soda ash prices to decline by 20-25% globally in FY10E, primarily due to:

(1) soda ash producers not having the necessary pricing power to retain the benefit of low energy prices;

(2) softening demand due to a slowdown in the global economy; and

(3) a surge in Chinese soda ash capacity of about 4 million tonnes over the next two years, which may have a material impact on Asia’s soda ash margins.

The 12-month target price of Rs 140 is based on a trough P/BV multiple of 0.8x. Key risks to the target price include:

(1) renewal of soda ash prices at prices higher than estimates;

(2) further depreciation of the rupee against the dollar; and

(3) a rebound in international urea prices.

MERRILL LYNCH on GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS

GODREJ Consumer Products’ (GCPL) margins are expected to be the best ever in FY10E, driven by a sharp fall in palm oil prices and product price increases effective September ’08. Recent excise duty cuts should further reduce input costs. The management’s focus is on driving category sales growth, rather than market share gains. The latter may not be easy to achieve, given that GCPL is the market leader. The share of international sales may go up from the current 25% in the long term. No impact of the economic slowdown has been witnessed on the FMCG sector so far, and sales growth has picked up in the past two months. Merrill Lynch believes GCPL can benefit from a tightening consumer wallet as its product portfolio is skewed towards economy brands. At 13x FY10E P/E, GCPL is trading at a discount to its FMCG peer group and the historic average. Merrill Lynch expects the discount to narrow as earnings momentum picks up.

HSBC on HPCL

HSBC has cut the target price on HPCL to Rs 271 and downgraded its ratings to ‘neutral’ from ‘overweight’. HPCL incurred a loss of Rs 4,100 crore in H1 FY09, and the recent fuel price cut has limited its ability to recoup a portion of this loss. With the possibility of a second fiscal stimulus package, there is also the risk of further price cuts. While the government has initiated discussions for reforms in auto fuel pricing, HSBC remains cautious on its implementation as this can result in higher diesel prices. Based on oil price assumption of $90/bbl for FY09 and $71/bbl for FY10, HSBC estimates sector under-recoveries of Rs 138,000 crore and Rs 55,000 crore, respectively, and 50% compensation in the form of oil bonds and 33% in the form of discounts from upstream players. Based on a combination of P/E and P/BV approaches, HSBC has cut its target price after accounting for the recent derating of the market and HPCL’s refining peers. Any reform in the subsidy mechanism allowing HPCL to bear lower levels of under-recoveries will be a key catalyst for the stock.

Stock views on Tata Chemicals, Tata Steel, Sun TV

Fairwealth Sec on Tata Chemicals, target Rs 330

"The company has plans to invest Rs 250 crores in Capex this year. Of this, Rs 50 crore would go into setting up a customised fertiliser plant in the Barbala plant in Uttar Pradesh in 2010. Rest of it would be utilized general maintenance work While margins might get impacted for overseas Operations (Soda Ash Busines), Indian Operations are expected to run smoothly for the company. We give company a buy on strong Balance Sheet and revenue visibility in the long term. We give stock a buy with a target price of 330 over a period 6 months to 1 year," says Fairwealth Securities' report.

KRChoksey on Tata Steel, target of Rs 467

The company has guided a growth of 20-25% for its Indian operations, with a thrust on infrastructure in the upcoming budget. The domestic demand is expected to remain robust. Steel prices have started moving upwards due to restocking. The demand in Europe is also showing some revival, however clarity on demand is expected by Q2FY10.Going forward we expect the company to perform better due to better realizations, cost saving measures at Corus & better performance from Indian operations.

At current CMP of Rs 397 stock is trading at forward FY10 PE of 8.4 and FY11 PE of 4.9 . Forward EV/EBITDA stands at 7 for FY10. We recommend a 'BUY' on the stock with a one year target price of Rs 467," says KRChoksey's research report.

KRChoksey on Sun TV, target of Rs 294

Sun TV Network is currently trading at 26.2x its FY09 EPS of Rs 9.4, which is premium to its peer and deserve the premium valuation because of its unique business model (time slot model), highest operating margin as compared to its peers, strong balance sheet which has an cash position of Rs 400 crore. We believe company has a better placed than its peers because of its less dependent of advertising on national front and strong movie pipeline for FY10. Thus, we recommend a “BUY” on the stock with a target price of Rs 294, which represents a potential upside of 20%," says KRChoksey's research report.