Stock views on Power Grid, AIA Engineering, Emco, KSB Pumps

Hem Securities on Power Grid - Target of Rs 105
Hem Securities has recommended a buy rating on Power Grid Corporation of India with a target of Rs 105 in its research report.

"Power Grid Corporation of India has granted investment approval for implementation of `North East - Northern / Western Inter connector-I' Project at an estimated cost of Rs 111.30 billion with commissioning schedule of 54 months for Part A (related to HVDC) and 48 months for part B and C (related to AC) of the transmission system, from the date of investment approval."

"The net sales for the company gone up by 36.07% to Rs 14774.40 million for the Q3FY09 as against the net sales of Rs 10857.70 million for the Q3FY08. The company posted the EBITDA of Rs 12269.50 million for the Q3FY09 as against the EBITDA of Rs 8881.30 million for the Q3FY08 with the growth rate of 38.15%. We initiate a ‘BUY’ signal on the stock at the current levels with a target of Rs 105 in the medium term investment horizon (3- 4 months) with an appreciation of 16%," says Hem Securities' research report.


Hem Securities on AIA Engineering - Target of Rs 178

Hem Securities has reiterated its buy rating on AIA Engineering with a target of Rs 178 in its research report.

"AIA Engineering Limited has a scalable business model, good growth visibility, high operating margin and limited competition. The company has registered a continuous robust growth rate over past few years. As discussed with the management, the Company has a strong order book position of around INR 415 crores which provides a strong visibility to their revenues. We expect the company to outperform in the future and we reiterate “BUY” on the stock with a target of Rs 178," says Hem Securities' report.


KRChoksey on Emco - Target of Rs 36

KRChoksey has maintained its buy rating on Emco with a target price of Rs 36 in its research report.

"Emco Ltd has received five orders worth Rs 550 crore from the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd for a 765 kilo volt overhead transmission line. The orders also involve supply of galvanised steel towers. In Q3FY09, company’s witnessed drop of 14.6% & 45.7%(YoY) in net sales & PAT to Rs 207.9 crore & Rs 8.2 crore. The topline declined mainly due to intentional delay in deliveries to industrial clients and issues in sourcing of key components. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with target price of Rs 36, with an upside potential of 38.5% from current levels," says KRChoksey's research report.


KRChoksey on KSB Pumps - Target of Rs 242

KRChoksey has recommended a buy rating on KSB Pumps with a target price of Rs 242 in its research report.

"In Q4CY08, the company’s sales have increased by 33% on a y -o-y basis to Rs 174.7 crore from Rs 131.8 crore. The growth in sales was on account of rise in the revenues from pumps segment by 47% y-o-y.The growth of the pump industry would be driven by the heavy investments being made in the user industries, such as power and petrochemicals."


"The growth of the pump industry would be driven by the heavy investments being made in the user industries, such as power and petrochemicals. However delay in the expansion plans of user industries and volatility in raw material prices going forward can affect the company’s earnings. We recommend a BUY with a target price of Rs 242, implying an upside potential of 17%. At the target price, the stock would be valued at 5.5x CY09E EPS of Rs 43.4," says KRChoksey's research report.

Stock Views on ACC, Power Grid, Bank of Baroda, Steel Authority of India, Hindustan Construction, Reliance Industries

ABN Amro on ACC

ABN Amro has cut ACC’s earnings and downgraded it to ‘sell’. ACC seems financially well-placed with moderate expansion plans, but its earnings outlook has weakened, since the industry may see excess supply for at least two years, which will lower cement prices. FY09 cement demand growth YTD, at 6.6%, is below expectations, due to the stress in credit markets and delays in capex. So, demand estimates for FY10 and FY11 fell by 200 bps each to 8%, which exposes the industry much longer to surplus supply. Restructuring over the past five years has seen ACC exiting non-core businesses. The company, which had high gearing in the last business cycle (1997-03), now seems in a stronger financial position. ABN estimates it will have a debt-equity ratio of just 7% even after financing its entire planned capex of Rs 3,700 crore over the next three years. This will raise its capacity by 9.6%, slightly ahead of the expected demand growth. ACC looks cheap, trading at a cement enterprise value/mmt of $61 (vs replacement cost of $110), but ABN sees more downside to its earnings, given the overhang of excess supply.

HSBC on Hindustan Construction

HSBC Global has reiterated its ‘underweight’ rating on Hindustan Construction Company (HCC). It has factored in a dividend payment of Re 1 per share, implying a dividend yield of 2.2%. Thus, the total potential return on investment in shares over the next year is -1.8%. HSBC considers the share price to be volatile. For Indian stocks, HSBC considers the average cost of equity to be 11%. A volatile Indian stock with a potential total one-year return of 10 percentage points on either side of 11%, i.e. 1-21%, merits a ‘neutral’ rating. As the potential total one-year return on HCC is less than 1%, HSBC reiterates its ‘underweight’ rating on the stock. A key upside catalyst for the stock is sharp increase in order inflows and reduction in leverage, resulting in lower interest costs. A sharp drop in execution volumes along with demand slowdown remain key downside risks to HSBC’s valuation

CITIGROUP on Power Grid Corporation

CITIGROUP has maintained its ‘sell’ rating on Power Grid Corp (PGCIL) with a target price of Rs 69. PGCIL’s shares have outperformed the Sensex, post its IPO. Despite correcting more than 55% from its peak, it is not in the value zone yet. They are trading on par with NTPC, which appears unjustified. The key upside risks are: 1) Favourable CERC regulations for FY10-14E; 2) Faster-than-expected project execution; and 3) Higher non-core business profits. PGCIL has the potential to generate 14-17% returns on its regulatory equity base, compared with NTPC’s 14-22%. NTPC under-reports its profit/net worth. PGCIL matches depreciation under the tariff with reported depreciation, whereas NTPC’s depreciation under the Company Law is higher than under the tariff. PGCIL’s target price of Rs 69 is set at 1.8x FY10E P/BV from 2.2x earlier — a 10% discount to the target P/BV multiple for NTPC. PGCIL’s H1 FY09 reported PAT, at Rs 700 crore, was down 15% y-o-y. But this is largely due to forex fluctuations and a pass-through in tariffs.

Indiabulls Securities on Bank of Baroda

INDIABULLS Securities has reiterated its ‘hold’ rating on BoB. The bank reported an average performance in Q209, even as its asset quality improved. It expects interest income to grow by 16% in FY09, against 31% in FY08, as the growth rate of advances is likely to fall to 23% in FY09 vis-à-vis 28% in FY08. In addition, the expected fall in yield on investments will affect interest income. Advances may be under pressure due to the global financial crisis and slowdown in the domestic economy. Over 20% of the loan book is accounted for by real estate and SMEs, which are prone to default in the current domestic scenario. BoB’s net interest margin (NIM) increased by a mere 4 bps sequentially to 2.8%. NIM is likely to be under pressure in the coming quarters due to increased cost of deposits, though RBI has lowered its key policy rates. With increased risk-aversion, BoB may shift the mix of interestearning assets from high-yield, risky advances to safer, low-return investments. This is likely to reduce the average yield, further pressurising NIM.

MERRILL Lynch on Reliance Industries
MERRILL Lynch has retained it ‘buy’ rating on Reliance Industries (RIL). Its refining margin has consistently been higher than the benchmark Singapore complex refining margin. Analyses suggests RIL’s superior refining margin is due to its ability to refine heavier crude than Dubai. Compared to the last refining downturn, RIL is set to benefit more in FY10-FY11E from its ability to refine heavier crude. Reliance Petroleum’s (RPL) refinery, which is expected to start operations soon, can process even heavier crude than RIL and has a superior product slate. The average discount of Arab heavy to Dubai since FY01 is $2.4/bbl. The discount has sustained at over $5/bbl even in the past six weeks, despite the slump in oil prices. Merrill Lynch estimates RPL’s refining margin at $12.9/bbl if it were to operate in Q3 FY09, vis-à-vis Singapore margin of $7.3/bbl. It will produce more gasoline than RIL. Gasoline cracks have always been at a premium to naphtha and LPG cracks. Merrill Lynch feels that a weakening in diesel and gasoline cracks is the main risk to RPL attaining such high margins when it begins operations.

EDELWEISS on Steel Authority of India

SAIL has a saleable steel capacity of 13 mt. But with no major capacity expansion over the next two years and moderate demand scenario, incremental volume growth is seen at 0.6 mtpa in FY09E and may decline by 0.4 mtpa in FY10E on production cuts. SAIL’s average volume-based growth till FY10 will be more muted than that of Tata Steel and JSW Steel. The company is targeting completion of modernisation-cum-expansion by end-FY11, which is set to hike its saleable steel capacity to 23.1 mtpa, up 78% from FY08 levels. It will also improve the company’s productivity and refine its product mix. While the project will put SAIL in the global league, its timely completion looks daunting. Due to its scale and operational vastness, SAIL is best-positioned among its peers to gain from Indian steel consumption growth in the next two years. But in the absence of tangible volume growth, slow demand growth for steel, exposure to tight coking coal market, highest susceptibility to government norms on prices, and potential delay in expansion plan, Edelweiss expects SAIL’s margins to be under pressure in the next two years.

India Infoline Views on Largecap Power Stocks - Power Grid, NTPC

Power Grid

The company has aggressive capex plans of Rs 550bn for the 11th Five Year Plan in line with the government’s target of increasing the national power transmission capacity to 37.7GW by FY12. The aggressive capex augurs well for PGC whose earnings growth is driven by growth in the gross block. PGC has a stable business model wherein it earns a cost pass through and a 14% return on regulatory equity plus performance.

NTPC

NTPC is India’s largest and leading power generation utility. It produces 29% of total electricity in India with an installed capacity of 30GW, which it plans to take to 50GW by FY12 and 75GW by FY17. We believe NTPC will be able to execute atleast ~80% of the planned capacity addition in time based on its unparalleled execution capabilities, cash balances of Rs170bn, low gearing at 0.52x and easy access to funds.

Stock Views on Power Grid, Nitin Fire, Dabur India

Indiabulls Securities on Power Grid - Target of Rs 110

Indiabulls Securities Research has initiated a buy rating on Power Grid Corporation of India with a target of Rs 110 in its September 23, 2008 research report. "At the current market price of Rs 91.10, the Company is trading at a price to book multiple of 2.73x. Our valuation model gives us a target price to book multiple of 3.29x and a estimated fair value of Rs 110. We have assumed a discount rate of 9.25%. Our target price shows an upside of 21% from the current price. We therefore initiate coverage with a BUY rating," says Indiabulls Securities' research report.

HDFC Securities on Nitin Fire - Target of Rs 525

HDFC Securities has maintained its buy rating on Nitin Fire Protection Industries with a target of Rs 525 in its September 24, 2008 research report. "Revenues and profits of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 58% and 66% over FY08 to FY10E. At the CMP of Rs 271, it is trading at 8.2(x) and 6.4(x) its FY09E and FY10E FDEPS. We have calculated a DCF based target price of Rs 525, an upside of 94% from current levels. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock," says HDFC Securities research report.

Hem Securities on Dabur India - Target of Rs 110

Hem Securities has initiated a buy rating on Dabur India with a target of Rs 110 in its September 23, 2008 research report. "Presently, the stock is trading at times to its earnings and times to its book value. We initiate a 'BUY' signal on the stock with a target price of Rs 110 in the medium term investment horizon expecting an appreciation of 25% from CMP of Rs 87," says Hem Securities' research report

Stock Views on Power Grid, Karnataka Bank, Bharti Airtel

INDIABULLS SECURITIES on Power Grid

INDIABULLS Securities initiates coverage on Power Grid Corporation with a ‘buy’ rating. Power Grid is a central transmission utility engaged in inter-state and inter-regional power transmission business. Over a period of 16 years, it has emerged as one of the largest and best-managed transmission utilities in the world. Currently, it operates around 67,000 circuit km of transmission lines, along with 111 sub-stations and transmits 40-45% of the power generated in the country. The company has around 45 projects in hand, which will drive its revenues and earnings in the medium term. Indiabulls estimates that Power Grid’s net sales and net profit will witness a CAGR of 20.5% and 19.5%, respectively, by ’10 on the back of significant investment opportunities. At the current market price (CMP), the stock is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.7x. Based on the valuations, the target P/B multiple of the stock is 3.29x, resulting in a fair value price of Rs 110. This implies a potential upside of 21% from the CMP.

DEUTSCHE BANK on karnataka Bank

DEUTSCHE Bank has a ‘sell’ rating on Karnataka Bank with a target price of Rs 115. The ‘sell’ call is based on the following parameters: (i) Frequent equity dilution by the bank in its pursuit of maintaining higher Tier-I ratio, resulting in lower normalised leverage and return on equity (RoE); (ii) Consistently deteriorating asset quality, as higher exposure to retail and small & mid-corporate segments makes it vulnerable to any significant downturn in the asset quality cycle; (iii) Large proportion of the investment portfolio in available for sale category exposes the bank to higher mark to market risk; (iv) Unsatisfactory traction on the fee income front; and (v) Absence of consolidation as a trigger after FY09, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to allow foreign banks to acquire private sector banks.

HSBC on Bharti Airtel

HSBC retains ‘overweight’ rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs 1,002. The investment thesis expects sharp growth in the domestic wireless market, outstanding execution of a low-leverage, low-cost business model with high return on invested capital, and continued alignment of majority and minority shareholder interests. Principal risks will be upward revision of subscriber-based criteria for additional spectrum, hike in spectrum charges, aggressive international expansion and higher capital expenditure (capex) than HSBC’s estimates. Receipt of 3G spectrum should aid Bharti in consolidating market leadership. If the new entrants are able to manage roll-outs, players like Tata Teleservices, Reliance Communications and BSNL will be more vulnerable. The impact on Bharti will be the least. Bharti was willing to pay the government an additional Rs 2,600 crore for 4.4 MHz to start up 2G spectrum.