Bank of Baroda

Bank of Baroda is likely to emerge as a much stronger player. Investors can invest in the stock with a long-term perspective

Beta: 1.06
Institutional holding: 38.0%
Current dividend yield: 2.9%
Current P/E: 6.5
Current m-cap: Rs 10,035.6 cr

WITH A network of over 2,800 branches across the country, Bank of Baroda (BoB) is one of the largest public sector banks in India. The bank has been growing rapidly in the last few years, and it closed FY '08 with 46 branches in abroad—a mark that very few banks have achieved. BoB's wide base has helped it to tap all the resources-in rural, semi urban and the metro markets-to grow its balance sheet and revenues. BoB's international advances grew by more than 30% in FY '08, as a result of its wide presence in overseas markets.

BUSINESS

BoB's balance sheet has grown at a compounded average growth rate (CAGR) of 25.9% per annum in '06-'08. And, in terms of the growth trajectory, BoB has joined the fray of the top PSU banks, like, Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Bank of India (BoI).

The turnaround actually started becoming visible in the FY '06, when for the first time in the current decade the balance sheet expanded by close to 20%. Since, FY '06, the bank's loan book has been increasing at a rate in excess of 25%, but the deposits have been growing at a bit slower rate. This has helped it in improving the credit-deposit ratio i.e. a higher portion of deposits is extended as advances.

However, BoB's net interest margin (NIM) has been under pressure as it has come down from 3.4% in FY '05 to 2.9% in FY '08. One may get an impression that this has happened because the bank has not been able to pass on the increase in cost of deposit to its customers. However, this is because the bank had to step up its deposit mobilisation in the last two years in order to maintain high credit growth. This resulted in higher interest payments on account of higher deposits, thereby, compressing the net interest income, which ultimately led to fall in NIM. This shows that there was a trade off between BoB's shrinking NIM and growth in its advances. And, it has paid off, as the bank's profit grew at a CAGR of 30.8% in last three financial years.

The non-interest part of BoB's revenue has not been growing as fast as the fund-based revenue. The bank needs to improve its performance on this parameter. In the six months ending September '08, the bank's profit has grown by 16.5% on a year-on-year basis, propelled by 32.5% growth in its advances. It must be noted that the growth in advances took place in a sluggish business environment.

The NIM was also under pressure in the first half of the current financial period. This is visible as the interest expenses grew by a higher percentage than interest income. However, BoB rationalised its other expenses, and this helped in boosting its profit growth.

The asset quality is very high as the net NPAs formed just 0.43% of net advances at the end of September '08 quarter and on this count the bank's performance is as good as a top private bank. Its capital adequacy ratio stands at 13% and it shows that it is well capitalised.

VALUATION

The stock is trading at a multiple of 6.5 times the trailing twelve months' earnings. The low valuations do not justify the earnings growth, which is much higher. Moreover, the stock is trading at a discount to its book value (Rs 301 per share). A fundamentally sound stock, trading at less than its book value, is often the first to rise when the market starts moving up. Investors are advised to invest in the stock with long-term horizon.

Stock views on Sintex, FAG Bearing, Tech Mahindra, Bank of Baroda

HDFC Securities on BOB - Target Rs 336

HDFC Securities has maintained its buy rating on Bank of Baroda with a price target of Rs 336, in its research report." Bank of Baroda (BOB) reported strong PAT growth of 41.4% YoY to Rs 7.1 billion on the back of strong operating performance. PAT was up on the back of NII growth of 46.6% YoY as well as very good treasury performance. Bank of Baroda has improved its NII performance where it has been laggard in last few quarters. It was done by reducing reliance on bulk deposits as well as expanding yield on advances. We maintain our BUY recommendation and price target of Rs 336," says HDFC Securities' report.


Reliance Money on Tech Mahindra - Target Rs 292


Reliance Money has maintained its buy rating on Tech Mahindra with a target of Rs 292 in its research report. "Tech Mahindra (TML) reported disappointing sequential performance with revenues in USD term declining by 14% qoq to USD 231.9 million. Net profit for the quarter declined by 5% qoq to Rs 2228 million (Excluding tax write back of Rs 673 million in Q2FY09). Weak industry environment coupled with expectations of weak results have led to a significant correction in TML shares prices in the last three months, down by 65% from a high of Rs 631 in October 2008. We maintain BUY on TML with a target price of Rs 292, at our target price the stock will be valued at 4X FY10E," says Reliance Money's research report.


Angel Broking on FAG Bearing - Target Rs 350

Angel Broking is bullish on FAG Bearing and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 350, in its report. "FAG Bearings’ prospects are derived from demand arising in the Capital Goods and Automobile industry. We believe industry valuations are likely to remain subdued in the near term due to overall slowdown in the sector. The company posted CAGR of 14% and around 30% in Revenue and Profit over the last five years, respectively. Going ahead, over CY2008-10E, we conservatively model, volumes to record a CAGR of 7-8%, which will drive around 9-10% growth in Revenues and around 10% growth in Net Profit in the mentioned period. We believe Revenue growth will be largely driven by higher contribution from new products."

"We bank on the company’s strong fundamentals of consistently recording high RoE and RoCE. Further, its debt free status would help it post better Bottom-line growth amidst a high Interest Rates regime. At the CMP of Rs 261, the stock is quoting at 4.5x CY2009E Earnings, which is much lower than its historical P/E of around 14x. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs 350 owing to its debt free status and strong Balance Sheet, which would act as a cushion in overall industrial slowdown," says Angel Broking's research report.


IIFL on Sintex India - Target Rs 123

IIFL has recommended an add rating on Sintex India with a target of Rs 123, in its report. "Key raw-material costs are down 40% from their peak and 15% from YTDFY09 average levels in January 2009. We believe a compensating volume growth in FY10 will be difficult, given that OEMs account for 45% of Sintex’s FY09ii revenues. Non-auto OEMs remain vulnerable in the current slowdown as the company lost a US$10m contract in the wind energy segment at Wausaukee. Though aerospace and defence businesses continue to be strong, the company mentioned pricing pressures in the wind energy and medical imaging businesses. We expect Sintex’s revenues and PAT to decline 4% and 13.7% YoY respectively in FY10ii. We downgrade the stock to ADD with a target price of Rs 123/share, at 0.8x FY10ii BV," says IIFL's research report.