Stock Views on Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services, Allied Digital, Grasim Industries, Karuturi Global

ICICI Securities on Reliance Industries - Rating: BUY

ICICI Securities has maintained its buy rating on Reliance Industries in its June 11, 2008 research report. "We are increasing our FY09 and FY10 crude price and exchange-rate estimates as well as building-in lower refining and petrochemical margins for Reliance Industries (RIL). We are also factoring-in an expected delay in commencement of production from the KG D6 block and operations of the Reliance Petroleum (RPL) refinery commencing September ’08. Recent Government decision to keep private companies out of the purview of subsidy sharing is positive. However, we remain positive on the long-term prospects of RIL on the back of impressive earnings growth and attractive E&P portfolio. Reiterate BUY.""We value RIL’s extant petrochemical and refining business at Rs 1381 per share, retail at Rs 140 per share, E&P at Rs 1,168 per share and RIL’s stake in RPL at Rs 343 per share. We also attribute Rs 85 per share value to the company’s SEZ at Haryana, implying fair value of Rs 3,060 per share," says ICICI Securities' research report.

India Infoline on Tata Consultancy Services - Target Rs 875

India Infoline has recommended a buy rating on Tata Consultancy Services with a target price of Rs 875 in its July 17, 2008 research report. "Though the Q1 FY09 performance of TCS was sedate, as expected, and business outlook remains challenging, the stock is likely to outperform in the short-term given the bleak expectations before the results. Over the last three months, TCS has significantly underperformed the sector especially vis-à-vis similar-sized peers, Infosys and Wipro, due to higher uncertainty about its Q1 FY09 performance." "Since April 2008, TCS has delivered a negative return of 12.5% against positive return of 1% in BSE IT and 9% for Infosys. Since announcement of Infosys Q1 FY09 numbers, TCS is down 16% implying further moderation of expectations. Q2 FY09 is likely to be a better quarter for the company with improved growth outlook in the two troubled BFSI clients and as also indicated by healthy hiring in Q1 FY09. We rate the stock as BUY with a target price of Rs 875 implying 20% upside," says India Infoline's research report.

FinQuest Securities on Allied Digital Services - Target Rs 1198

FinQuest Securities has maintained its buy rating on Allied Digital Services with a target price of Rs 1198 in its August 8, 2008 research report. "ADSL reported operating revenue of Rs 896 million for the quarter ended 1QFY09, an increase of 38% YoY from Rs 652 million in the corresponding quarter last year. Its EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 218 million from Rs 139 million. EBITDA margin expanded by 250bps YoY to 23.6%, attributable to change in revenue mix in favour of Services business, which commands higher EBITDA margin in the range of 50-60%."

"At current market price of Rs 791, ADSL is trading at P/E of 31.9x for FY08 EPS of Rs 24.8. We expect ADSL to trade at 15.6x FY09E and 8.6x FY10E EPS of Rs 50.6 and Rs 92.1 respectively. We maintain BUY recommendation on the stock with price target of Rs 1198 using DCF-methodology, indicating an upside of 51% from the current level," says FinQuest Securities' research report.

Sharekhan on Grasim Industries - Target of Rs 3002

Sharekhan has recommended a buy rating on Grasim Industries with a price target of Rs 3002 in its June 11, 2008 research report. "Considering the poor performance of the sponge iron division in the past, we believe the sale of the business at 6.4x FY2008 EV/EBIDTA will be value accretive for the company. The sale of the sponge iron division will also boost the overall profitability of the company. The proceeds from the sale will enable the company to make fresh investments in its core businesses of cement and VSF. At the current market price of Rs 2192, the stock is trading at 8.8x its estimated FY2009E EPS. Based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 3002," says Sharekhan's research report.

Ambit Capital on Karuturi Global - Target of Rs 49

Ambit Capital has maintained its buy rating on Karuturi Global with a revised price target of Rs 49 in its June 10, 2008 research report. "Karuturi Global (KGL) announced its Q4FY08 and full year FY08 results, marginally below our expectations. Despite a strong showing in Q4FY08 that rounded off a very good second half for the company, KGL's performance was below our expectations.However, the company has delivered along expected lines as far as the margins are concerned."

"At its CMP of Rs 22, the stock is currently trading at a P/E of 5.6x and 4.8x our FY09E and FY10E fully diluted EPS estimates respectively. We maintain our 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs 49; indicating 124% upside from CMP," says Ambit Capital's research report.

India Inc lines up $17-billion IPOs

THERE is always a lull before the storm. After a rather dull first eight months of 2008, the Indian capital markets are headed for a stormy session ahead. What’s in store for the last four months is more than thrice the amount of proceeds raised during the first eight months.

In fact, Indian companies are lined up to raise an estimated $17 bn from 56 public issues during the last four months of 2008, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.

Merchant bankers in India don’t rule out a possible IPO bubble burst, considering the huge amount of IPOs in the pipeline. Till now, companies have deferred their issues due to valuation concerns. They have been waiting in the hope that market sentiments will rationalise sooner rather than later. Now, they are slowly but surely resigning to the fate and starting to move ahead with the fund raising process, as there are genuine capital requirements, which cannot be put on hold beyond a certain timeline.

Analysts worry that the stampede, which is most likely to emerge in the last four months of 2008, would make it a difficult market for merchant bankers to complete deals. Probably, they’ll work on selective deals and after a hard look at what can sell in this market decide on the course of action. It will also be interesting to see whether the entire system is actually ready to manage the IPO rush, especially when too many competing deals will be flooding to be get done at the same time.

This follows the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) recently kicking off primary market reforms by amending the rules on collection of IPO money. As per the new guidelines, retail investors’ money will remain in their bank accounts till allotment. Also, it recently reduced the duration for a rights issue from 109 days to 43 days.

State-owned companies such as NHPC (Rs 1,670 crore), and Oil India Ltd (OIL Rs 1,400 crore) have already made their intentions clear by filing applications with the Sebi and are expected to set the tone for private companies to follow suit. Another state-run company, RITES (Rs 350 crore) has already got a SEBI approval for its public issue

This is the best time for the government to take the lead to revive the primary market. Divestments and offerings from PSUs at attractive prices can pull back investors easily. Once the momentum starts, the sentiments would improve. We have seen this happen in the past; it can happen again.

Capital markets to improve

WITH credentials not under question and with the right pricing, PSU IPOs can become the harbinger of good markets. The capital markets will only improve from here on. We expect the situation to improve significantly over the next twelve months. We, in fact, are already getting there. Earlier this year companies such as Wockhardt Hospitals and Emaar MGF had withdrawn their public offerings due to a lukewarm response. Surprisingly, despite the slowdown, India still managed to occupy the fifth slot in the $87-bn global IPO market, raising $4.3 bn from 32 deals so far this year. On the other hand, China ranks second, raising $15.6 billion from 94 IPOs.

Stock Views on Tata Steel, Idea Cellular, Tata Chemicals, Lupin, ONGC

CLSA on Tata Steel - RATING: OUTPERFORM



CLSA maintains ‘outperform’ rating on Tata Steel, but lowers its target price to Rs 745. Steel prices have recently corrected by $30-40/tonne across regions, with parallel declines in spot iron ore and scrap prices. A correction in steel prices in H2 CY08 was imminent, as the price hike had overshot the rise in costs. Prices have also weakened due to the seasonally weak period and rise in Chinese exports. Moreover, steel prices have remained strong, despite weak global macroeconomic indicators. While CLSA expects steel prices to decline against the backdrop of a weakening global economy, prices are unlikely to fall below $900/tonne, as marginal producers are currently operating at $850-950/tonne. CLSA’s regional steel team believes that the recent spike in Chinese exports was due to exploitation of export regulation loopholes by smaller mills. CLSA remains confident that the Chinese government will soon clamp down on exports, either by hiking export taxes, or by implementing a quota system, which should support steel prices. With 70% of its sales on a spot basis, Corus’ earnings are highly geared to spot European steel prices. Though Q1 FY09 results will benefit from the lag in re-pricing of raw material contracts, Q2 EBITDA/tonne faces a risk due to weakening steel prices, higher raw material costs and appreciation of the US dollar versus the pound and euro. While CLSA sees higher predictability for standalone earnings, Corus adds volatility in the near term for consolidated earnings, which will be reflected in the multiples. Global steel majors’ multiples have corrected since their May-June peaks.



MERRILL LYNCH on Idea Cellular - RATING: BUY



IDEA launched its mobile services in Mumbai last week. At its launch event, the company underscored Idea’s market leadership in Maharashtra and emphasised its brand values. There were no major references to pricing differentiation; the company said Idea is not a discount brand. Idea’s tariffs on launch seem broadly comparable with prevailing tariffs of other operators, barring some product innovations like unlimited on-net night speak, postpaid-cum-prepaid service etc. Potential delivery of strongerthan-consensus subscriber market share in a relatively mature market like Mumbai can boost investors’ sentiment on Idea, even though profits from its Mumbai operations can take longer to filter through. Idea aims to have ~0.8 million subscribers in Mumbai over the next 12 months and expects around 20% share of net additions in the circle. The company expects the Mumbai operations to break even in about four years and the capital expenditure (capex) for Mumbai is expected to total Rs 800 crore by March ’09. Idea’s Mumbai network encompasses 1,000 cell sites and has the capacity to accommodate 1.5 million subscribers (roughly 10% of Mumbai’s current wireless subscriber base). The company said its core network is 3Gready and has scalable IP-based transport. Ericsson is Idea’s equipment vendor for Mumbai. Merrill Lynch has a ‘buy’ rating on Idea due to the company’s improving competitive position in the domestic market and it feels Idea’s strategic efforts are in the right direction.



GOLDMAN SACHS on TATA CHEMICALS - RATING: BUY



CMP: Rs 311 GOLDMAN Sachs initiates a ‘buy’ recommendation on Tata Chemicals with a target price of Rs 435, implying 29% potential upside. With its soda ash assets spread across geographies serving key consumption regions and an improving regulatory environment in the fertiliser industry, the market has not yet fully factored in Tata Chemicals’ earnings capability. Goldman Sachs expects 49% EBITDA CAGR over FY08-FY10E, on the back of earnings accretion from its US soda ash facility and improving margins in the soda ash and fertiliser segments. Tata Chemicals is trading at 4.9x FY10E EV/EBITDA, against its historical trading band of 6-8x forward EV/EBITDA. The company’s key catalysts include: 1) Q2 FY09 results, which should provide insight into Tata Chemicals’ soda ash realisations across geographies; 2) Sustained strength in global urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) prices that lead to improvement in fertiliser margins; and 3) Potential greenfield expansion plans in the urea segment. Goldman Sachs’ values Tata Chemicals’ core business using EV/EBITDA methodology and the investments in its group companies at 25% holding company discount to market value. Goldman Sachs values the fertiliser/soda ash/other chemical segments at 6x/5.5x/6x FY10E EV/EBITDA, respectively. The 12-month target price of Rs 435 implies FY10E EV/EBITDA of 6x.



CITIGROUP on Lupin - RATING: BUY



LUPIN’S deal to market Forest Labs’ AeroChamber Plus line of products to US paediatricians will allow it to leverage its branded field force and strengthen its franchise in the paediatrics segment. While the upside may not be on the same scale as Suprax, this will be accretive, given the lack of incremental spend on development or at the front end. Lupin has entered into a multiyear agreement with Forest to promote the latter’s value holding chamber (VHC) product AeroChamber Plus to paediatricians. AeroChamber Plus is the most prescribed holding chamber for use with inhaled asthma medications in the US. As per IMS ’07 data, two-thirds of all prescriptions for the product are written by paediatricians. Lupin’s 50-strong sales force in the US currently promotes only Suprax and has room to add two more products, thus implying no incremental spend for this deal. Lupin will make an undisclosed marketing margin up to a certain threshold level of sales, beyond which, the upside will increase. Citigroup expects margins to be in the range of 10-15% — while this is lower than Lupin’s core business margins, the lack of incremental regulatory, development or front-end spend makes this an accretive deal. Citigroup believes this deal — besides being a small step towards offsetting the impact of a potential generic threat to Suprax — highlights the scope for multiple growth drivers within Lupin’s business model.



MOTILAL OSWAL on ONGC - RATING: BUY



THE government had indicated that subsidy-sharing in FY09 will be fixed at Rs 45,000 crore for upstream companies (ONGC shares ~86%), Rs 20,000 crore for OMCs and oil bonds issuance at Rs 94,600 crore. Motilal Oswal estimates the net shortfall in under-recovery sharing (post upstream, OMC and oil bonds sharing) for FY09 to be below average Brent price of $118/bbl (Rs 42 per dollar). If oil prices remain below $118/bbl, the announced subsidy-sharing will sufficiently cover under-recoveries and thus, reduce the risk of higher sharing by ONGC. Brent price has fallen by 23% from its peak in July and if the trend continues, ONGC (with fixed subsidy burden) will be adversely affected. Assuming the subsidy burden at Rs 38,700 crore for FY09, ONGC’s EPS can reduce by 21% to Rs 98.2 if average FY09 Brent price declines from $110/bbl to $100/bbl. However, at fixed subsidy burden, ONGC’s EPS will rise by 21% to Rs 150 at Brent price of $120/bbl. The Chaturvedi committee has recommended capping ONGC’s realisation at $75/bbl (100% special oil tax on realisation above $75/bbl). The recommendations are unlikely to be fully implemented, given other harsh measures like frequent hike in retail fuel prices. Motilal Oswal remains positive on ONGC with a long-term perspective, as the bulk of its NELP acreage is yet to be explored, and thus, has huge potential for oil & gas discoveries. But in the near term, the stock performance will reflect movement in oil prices. At current oil prices, a movement either ways will pose a risk to earnings. The stock trades at 8.6x FY09E consolidated EPS of Rs 124.